The Reason for Coalition Failures

There is a great danger that the so-called grand coalition of opposition parties is not going to happen anytime soon. The coalition time is running out. The reason for the failure of the coalition are many but I have decided to highlights a few.




The Dummy Parties and Coalition

There are parties that form the opposition that are are dummies. These are parties that are like shelf companies or briefcase companies. They come into the light once an election is announced. They are set up specifically for donor money and donor sympathy.

A dummy party can only survive where there is money it does not need supporters. It might not even need a leader. Its lifespan begins when elections are announced and ends on polling day. These are parties like Mawambo or the very recently formed APA Zimbabwe created by Dr Nkosana Moyo.

We will be seeing a lot of these dummy parties in the following months.These parties add no value to the opposition cause even if they join a coalition.

The White Supremacists Money and the Coalition

The Rhodesians are still around, remember that they said, Rhodesia is forever. You will not see them directly in our elections, but their money will be in play.It was Rhodesian money that set up the original MDC in 1999. It is the Rhodesian white supremacist monies that have brought back the likes of Biti and Ncube back to the original MDC.

When the like of Joice Mujuru went to London, it was to beg for money from the white supremacists.She promised on  BBC to give them back the land, that is if she wins. She visited Chatham House to brief the white supremacists.

Here the white supremacists are confused as on whom to fund. The white supremacists usual bet Morgan Tsvangirai is sick and dying but is holding on to the MDC leadership. Joice Mujuru because of her revolutionary background, her former role in government and her character does not make her the former white settlers favourite to bet their monies on. She makes the white supremacists nervous and very uncomfortable.

The white Rhodesian supremacists' money for the coalition is definitely not coming easily this time

The Coalition of Joice Mujuru and the MDCs

This coalition of Joice Mujuru and the MDC was bound to suffer a stillbirth. The coalition is like mixing oil and water.

 The difference lies in the history of founders and foundation of the two parties. MDC was formed as a direct reaction by white supremacists settlers to Mugabe's land reform programme. Joice Mujuru's party was formed when she was expelled from the Zimbabwe People First, not ZANU pf, as some would say.

The differences go further.Joice Mujuru is a Chimurenga war veteran, while Tsvangirayi was imposed on MDC by the Rhodesians to cross-dress as a labour leader and a champion of the Rhodesian anti-land reform programme.

We will not have Tsvangirai and Mujuru sleeping in the same bed, not in this election!



The Brand name Parties and Coalition

Brand politics leads to brand tied parties.Let us start with a party called MDC-T. This a party that Morgan Tsvangirayi lead is going to die as soon as Tsvangirayi leaves it. It can not have a life after its leader quits politics.

These parties like dummy parties have very few but loyal supporters. Parties that are led by the likes of Hosea Chipanga, Egypty Munhenzva and others, can not form a coalition because they are afraid to be associated with ideologies that differ from theirs.

These parties are also afraid of being diluted and disempowered in a coalition. It is a fear that makes almost every opposition party hate to be members of a coalition.

Do we as Zimbabweans really need a coalition if we have credible opposition parties?

Lessons from Zimbabwe

SOCIAL MEDIA TWIST

 Panic buying, hoarding of foreign currency and the attempt to burn the bond notes was a direct result of social media abuse and foreign-owned interests in commerce and industry who have been opponents of the bond notes.Here Zimbabweans learnt that social media can influence consumer behaviour negatively and positively. This lesson has also panicked government to set up a ministry to mitigate effects of social media abuse.

FEAR AND PANIC
Every adult in Zimbabwe was affected in one way or another by the foreigner's attack on the Zimbabwean dollar. It is the fear of the repeat of 2008 that panicked the public into the hoarding frenzy and the subsequent hike in prices. The panic attack was triggered by professional political agitators on social media.

 Zimbabweans are a gullible lot when it comes to anything in print and the internet. Thanks to the high literacy rate, the political agitators are taking advantage. High literacy rate does not grow in tandem with financial literacy. The lesson learnt here is that financial illiteracy is a big problem and there is need for educating the masses

SYSTEMIC ABUSE

The fear of a repeat of 2008 keeps us in bondage and helps to perpetuate the very system that you are fighting against. Foreign-owned and controlled industry, the underground economy and the paid politically agitators have continued to fight against the bond notes. It is again this time there is bull run on the stock market and people are trying hard to ride on the dual listing of Old Mutual. It is not a coincidence that Old Mutual has a finger in all the listed companies. It is the benefactor of the panic buying and the attack of the bond notes.The lesson learnt here is that the foreigner owned companies that are systematically abusing our people and our economy.


LAUGHING LESSON
 On a lighter note, our conspiracy theorist buddies believe that last month's panic buying of everything was instigated by the powers that be. They say the move was to get people to bring out all that cash they been keeping out of the system. The bulk buying did indeed put money into the formal sector, but it is what the informal sector is doing with the money that the Reserve bank should ask this sector.

Still, on a lighter note, Robert Mugabe did get credit for the stabilisation of both the prices and the rates. it was said as soon as he got off the plane from New York .the prices and money rates went down.I observed it but I could not link his arrival with the fall of the prices and money rates.

THE LESSONS LEARNT

 We have learnt as Zimbabweans that just because the rates and price have stabilised, and the money changers have disappeared it doesn't mean the problem has been solved. Our fears as Zimbabweans is that are our threats are external. Our government, industry, commerce and the ordinary people should come together and work to exorcise the demon of sanctions on our country.

The panic buying and manipulation of money rates is a symptom of an economy under siege. The external trade and financial sanctions are the diseases.Let us fight for the total removal of the sanctions or let us find better means to bust the economic sanctions.

We are authors of our predicament, and we have the power to build or destroy our society and economy.

Bond Notes and The Panic Buyer Rates Explained

The bond notes celebrate a year in circulation. It has baffled the finance markets by not only competing with the USA dollar but proving its opponents wrong.The bond notes have a different effect on different markets. These markets and effects are often confused. This confusion l hope to clear below, l have split the markets into four.

I have also provided the rates for each market and the causes for the different rates.

THE BLACK MARKET 

I would like to define the black market and draw a clear line between it and the informal market. The former is illegal and the latter is legal.

The black market is where there are different rates on transactions. The nature of black market calls for different rates depending on the illegality of the transaction and the desperation and vulnerability of the parties to a particular transaction.

The rate can vary from 6% to 100%.

THE INFORMAL MARKET 

The informal market before the introduction of the bond notes was operating on a strict cash basis.The USA dollar was the medium for all transactions.

The informal market transactions are still on a strict cash basis, that is why we do not see swipe machines at Mbare or Sakubva market.
Here the dollar and the bond notes will trade at par. It is still one as to one.

THE FORMAL MARKET

 
The formal market is the least likely place for the bond note or any other currencies manipulation. It is the perfect market, as the economist likes to say.

The rates on all fronts are the same and only a business which acts unethically will be able to manipulate the rate.
In the formal market, a business that acts unethically is bound to be punished by the people through market forces and it is also bound to break some laws and will face appropriate legal sanctions.

THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET 

This market from my on observation is the most difficult to be able to distinguish it from the three markets above. The difficulty arises because the bond note is both an internal and external holder of value.

This problem is further made more complex by the fungibility of the bond notes going beyond our borders. The bond notes are an acceptable currency for business transactions in our neighbour states.

It is the most difficult market as all three of the above makes up this market. This makes the foreign exchange rate for the bond note to fluctuate between 6% and 30%. This rate depends on the availability or to be more accurate,  the supply of the bond notes on the market.

MY PARTING SHOT

I am a proponent of the bond notes and from my observations, the bond notes have had a positive impact on our financial system. I believe the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe has worked around the financial sanctions against Zimbabwe.

It is the enemies of Zimbabwe who were calling bond notes a failure before their introduction. These people like the fake born - again brothel runner, the fake pastor for hire and the professional paid political agitators cannot discount the positive effect the bond notes have had on our economy.